If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

On Manifold Markets, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do." has a probability of 0.9%.