If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

On Manifold Markets, "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? — Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress." has a probability of 1.0%.