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Iran leadership change by April 30?

12.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Iran leadership change by April 30?" has a probability of 12.5%. Trading volume: $2.7M.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 9h ago
Volume
$2.7M
Volume 24h
$34K
Liquidity
$93K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longe…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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