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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

41.3%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?" has a probability of 41.3%. Trading volume: $996K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$996K
Volume 24h
$409K
Liquidity
$49K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
41.1% / 41.5%
Spread
0.4%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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