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Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?

98.7%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?" has a probability of 98.7%. Trading volume: $108K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$108K
Volume 24h
$49K
Liquidity
$8K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
98.6% / 98.8%
Spread
0.2%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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