On Manifold Markets, "Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions — [Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)" has a probability of 61.8%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.