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NATO article 5 before 2027?

11.5%

Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "NATO article 5 before 2027?" has a probability of 11.5%. Trading volume: $57K.

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Probability Over Time

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 4h ago

Volume

$57K

Volume 24h

—

Liquidity

$21K

Traders

—

Bid / Ask

10.0% / 13.0%

Spread

3.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Dec 2026

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will b…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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