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Negative GDP growth in 2026?

10.5%

Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Negative GDP growth in 2026?" has a probability of 10.5%. Trading volume: $18K.

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Probability Over Time

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 4h ago

Volume

$18K

Volume 24h

—

Liquidity

$9K

Traders

—

Bid / Ask

10.2% / 10.8%

Spread

0.6%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Jan 2027

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate bel…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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