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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

11.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?" has a probability of 11.5%. Trading volume: $5.3M.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 9h ago
Volume
$5.3M
Volume 24h
$336K
Liquidity
$258K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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