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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

8.1%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?" has a probability of 8.1%. Trading volume: $250K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$250K
Volume 24h
$147K
Liquidity
$122K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
8.0% / 8.2%
Spread
0.2%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution d…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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