MethodologyAPI
Home › Politics › US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader o...

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

13.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?" has a probability of 13.5%. Trading volume: $507K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 4h ago
Volume
$507K
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$57K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
13.0% / 14.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" st…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology