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US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

39.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "US x Cuba military clash in 2026?" has a probability of 39.5%. Trading volume: $69K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$69K
Volume 24h
$253
Liquidity
$38K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
39.0% / 40.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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