On Manifold Markets, "What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100? — Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double" has a probability of 8.0%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.