On Manifold Markets, "What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)? — doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)" has a probability of 77.3%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.