On Manifold Markets, "When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4? — Q3-Q4 2024" has a probability of 89.2%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.