On Manifold Markets, "Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI? — Amazon/Anthropic" has a probability of 13.1%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.