Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy] — If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?

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On Manifold Markets, "Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy] — If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?" has a probability of 58.7%.

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy] — If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?

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