On Manifold Markets, "Who will launch the first crewed Mars flyby mission, USA or China? — China (CNSA or any Chinese entity)" has a probability of 11.5%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.