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Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

6.7%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?" has a probability of 6.7%. Trading volume: $375K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$375K
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$22K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
6.5% / 6.9%
Spread
0.4%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as nu…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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