MethodologyAPI
Home › Geopolitics › Will a Gulf State carry out military a...

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

5.9%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?" has a probability of 5.9%. Trading volume: $389K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$389K
Volume 24h
$62K
Liquidity
$41K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
5.8% / 6.0%
Spread
0.2%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, S…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology