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Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

17.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?" has a probability of 17.5%. Trading volume: $190K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$190K
Volume 24h
$30K
Liquidity
$53K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, S…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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