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Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

16.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?" has a probability of 16.5%. Trading volume: $335K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$335K
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$32K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
16.0% / 17.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the pu…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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