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Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

4.4%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?" has a probability of 4.4%. Trading volume: $443K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$443K
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$50K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
4.3% / 4.5%
Spread
0.2%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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