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Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

14.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?" has a probability of 14.5%. Trading volume: $11K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$11K
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$3K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
14.0% / 15.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the brac…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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