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Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

4.2%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?" has a probability of 4.2%. Trading volume: $1.0M.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$1.0M
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$68K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
4.1% / 4.2%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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