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Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

51.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?" has a probability of 51.5%. Trading volume: $1.8M.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$1.8M
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$74K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
51.0% / 52.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jul 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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