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Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

8.6%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?" has a probability of 8.6%. Trading volume: $56K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 35m ago
Volume
$56K
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$23K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
8.2% / 8.9%
Spread
0.7%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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