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Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?

18.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?" has a probability of 18.5%. Trading volume: $12K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 4h ago
Volume
$12K
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$2K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
17.0% / 20.0%
Spread
3.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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