MethodologyAPI
Home › Geopolitics › Will Israel conduct military action ag...

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?

32.0%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?" has a probability of 32.0%. Trading volume: $81K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$81K
Volume 24h
$69K
Liquidity
$11K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
31.0% / 33.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology