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Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?

7.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?" has a probability of 7.5%. Trading volume: $470K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 27m ago
Volume
$470K
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$57K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a milita…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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