On Manifold Markets, "Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?" has a probability of 38.9%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.