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Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

11.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" has a probability of 11.5%. Trading volume: $85K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$85K
Volume 24h
$187
Liquidity
$45K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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