On Manifold Markets, "Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?" has a probability of 31.8%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.