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Will S&P 500 increase in 2026?

65.1%
Probability on Manifold Markets

On Manifold Markets, "Will S&P 500 increase in 2026?" has a probability of 65.1%.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Manifold Markets
Updated 4h ago
Volume
Volume 24h
Liquidity
Traders
96 traders
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jan 2027

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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