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Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

2.6%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?" has a probability of 2.6%. Trading volume: $26.5M.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 7h ago
Volume
$26.5M
Volume 24h
$1.2M
Liquidity
$636K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
2.6% / 2.7%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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