MethodologyAPI
Home › Geopolitics › Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31...

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

5.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?" has a probability of 5.5%. Trading volume: $870K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$870K
Volume 24h
$108K
Liquidity
$266K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating th…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology