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Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

91.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?" has a probability of 91.5%. Trading volume: $511K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$511K
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$32K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
91.0% / 92.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or c…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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