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Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

7.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" has a probability of 7.5%. Trading volume: $101K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 53m ago
Volume
$101K
Volume 24h
$5
Liquidity
$47K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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