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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

8.0%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?" has a probability of 8.0%. Trading volume: $372K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$372K
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$74K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
7.0% / 9.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, c…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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