On Manifold Markets, "will this tweet hold up: Humans will fly to Mars in 50 months [27 Dec, 2028]" has a probability of 5.8%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.