MethodologyAPI
Home › Geopolitics › Will Trump announce that the US x Iran...

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?

16.0%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?" has a probability of 16.0%. Trading volume: $92K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$92K
Volume 24h
$61K
Liquidity
$17K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
15.0% / 17.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology