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Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

18.1%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?" has a probability of 18.1%. Trading volume: $151K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 52m ago
Volume
$151K
Volume 24h
$447
Liquidity
$15K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
17.1% / 19.0%
Spread
1.9%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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