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Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?

2.8%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?" has a probability of 2.8%. Trading volume: $60K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 4h ago
Volume
$60K
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$24K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
2.2% / 3.3%
Spread
1.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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