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Will Trump visit China by May 31?

76.0%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $1.3M

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will Trump visit China by May 31?" has a consensus probability of 76.0%. Polymarket: 76.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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76%
$1.3M
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$57K
Bid / Ask
75.0% / 77.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Mar 2026
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of th…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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