Across 2 prediction market platforms, "UEFA Champions League 2025/2026 Semi-Finalist (Top 4) — Bayern Munich" has a consensus probability of 86.7%. Manifold: 84.0%, Gemini: 91.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.