Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup — Vegas Golden Knights" has a consensus probability of 41.7%. Manifold: 36.7%, Gemini: 43.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.