Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which teams will make it to the knockout stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Colombia" has a consensus probability of 79.5%. Manifold: 88.0%, Gemini: 52.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.