Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028? — Kamala Harris" has a consensus probability of 5.0%. Manifold: 3.1%, Gemini: 8.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.