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Who will be taken with the second overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? — David Bailey (Texas Tech, Edge)

47.3%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 18pp spread · $298

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Who will be taken with the second overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? — David Bailey (Texas Tech, Edge)" has a consensus probability of 47.3%. Manifold: 37.9%, Gemini: 56.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
View →
38%
5 traders
Gemini
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56%
$298
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
Gemini
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$298
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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