Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Who will win the 2026 Democratic primary for Texas's 18th congressional district? — Al Green" has a consensus probability of 10.0%. Manifold: 19.0%, Predictit: 5.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.